By Memuna Forna
Ebola’s socio-economic backlash could be as devastating as the disease itself.
When faced with the terrible loss of life and human suffering caused by this Ebola outbreak, it becomes hard to believe that efforts to contain it will eventually succeed. They will, but even then the battle against it won’t be over. Its social and economic repercussions have the potential to cause as much damage to Sierra Leone as the disease itself.
Epidemics like Ebola hit the poorest hardest - those who live on $2 or less a day. This is already painfully evident. In Sierra Leone we have lost nearly 300 people to the disease, according to Ministry of Health figures. These mothers, fathers, sons and daughters are also caregivers, breadwinners, helpers and co-workers. They are essential to the economic productivity of families who do not have the resilience to withstand financial stocks such as death, illness or unemployment.
There is now only one district in Sierra Leone that is Ebola-free. Measures such as quarantining villages and homes, and imposing restrictions on travel and public gatherings are essential to control the virus’s spread. However they also curtail economic activity such as access to markets, trading and work. The closing of our borders, again necessary, has a negative impact on cross-border commerce, leading to less customs revenue and less investment. This is detrimental to all sectors of society, but for our 78% - the inevitable combination of reduced incomes and raised prices could be ruinous.
According to Mike Noyes, ActionAid UK's Head of Humanitarian Response, this outbreak could be economically disastrous for our poorest communities. "When markets stop functioning because people don't go to them or people are advised not to go to them, trading doesn't happen. That means people don't necessarily sell the products they need to sell, they don't buy what they need to buy," he says.
It was recently estimated that the impact of zoonotic epidemics (diseases such as Ebola transmitted from animals to humans) from 1995 to 2008, exceeded $120 billion globally. The economic consequences are felt by many sectors including agriculture, employment, trade, travel, tourism, transport, logistics, hospitality and health care. In Sierra Leone, our mining companies have taken a big hit as evidenced by their falling share prices.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) attempted to defuse the economic backlash by saying there should be no general ban on international travel or trade. As Allan Metzger of the Sierra Leone Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture points out: “We are already feeling the economic consequences. The Ebola outbreak has not only affected the country but the business community as a whole both regionally and cross border.” When the private sector contracts, it translates into less employment, less taxes, less investment and we all feel the squeeze.
Our public health system is inadequate at the best of times, and the huge financial and infrastructural demands imposed upon it by Ebola have taken resources away from other essential services such as maternal and child health and routine vaccinations leaving them to emerge as potential health problems further down the line.
Even before BA, Arik and Asky airlines stopped flying into Sierra Leone; Zambia and Ghana closed their borders to travellers from Ebola hit countries; and embassies began advising the evacuation of non-essential staff, it was clear the tourist, travel, hotel and hospitality sectors were hard hit. Last week, Tourism Minister, Peter Bayuku-Konte estimated that Sierra Leone’s tourism sector had lost over $6 million in revenue as a result of the virus. “Investors are leaving and visitors and tourists are staying away. Some flights have been cancelled while the rest arrive half empty. Obviously our hotels have very low occupancy causing proprietors to lay off some staff. We are fighting for the health of our nation and our economy,” he says. With the WHO now declaring the situation a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), that $6 million estimate has probably increased substantially.
Representing 46% of our GDP, agriculture is essential to Sierra Leone’s economic development. Abu Bakarr Daramy, spokesperson for the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food Security (MAFFS) confirmed that the Ebola outbreak is having a serious negative impact in this area, saying that the prices of some foods have already increased and a disrupted growing season will affect future harvests.
“Sierra Leone’s coffee and cocoa industries, centred in Kailahun and Kenema, have been compromised by the extent of the outbreak in these regions. Farmers have not been able to underbrush because the ban on public gatherings prohibits them from coming together to help each other as they usually do, or they have deserted their farms. At this time of year, rice farmers are supposed to produce their foundation seed for the next harvest and people aren’t buying local meat because they are suspicious it might be bush meat.”
MAFFS is partnering with UNICEF and the FAO to find solutions. These include supplying seedlings, mobilising youth groups to help with the underbrushing, speaking to banks and lenders to defer loan repayments, organising food programmes and initiating face-to-face education programmes to develop farmers’ skills.
Like MAFFS, every sector needs to behave proactively. Ebola has forced our economy backwards, and we cannot wait until the disease runs its course before we tally up our new socio-economic vulnerabilities and devise a strategy to manage them. We need our health care specialists, our social care networks, our business people and our employer’s organisations to find their voices, to consult their stakeholders and advise the government on what they need to do now to ensure that the country can get back on its feet as soon as possible. If we do not act immediately, we will all be left counting the costs, and it is the poorest 78% of Sierra Leoneans who will pay the most out of their daily $2 or less.
(C) Politico 12/08/14
