By Allieu Sahid Tunkara
Director of Economic Statistics at Statistics Sierra Leone has said that it will be very difficult for the country to attain its much desired middle level income status by 2035.
Abu Bakarr Turay said: “the Ebola outbreak has tremendously slowed down the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, the immediate halt in road construction and the swift departure of foreign investors are all evidential instances.”
He told Politico that a country could attain the status of a middle income through direct investment but that should be either starting a new economic activity or expanding an existing one. He cited iron ore mining as a new economic activity, which had been positively impacting the growth of the country’s GDP.
“In 2011 GDP was 5.8% equivalent to over 7 trillion, in 2012 it was 15.25% amounting to over 8 trillion, in 2013, it was over 10 trillion and we made projection of over 12 trillion Leones by 2014,” he revealed.
The economist said the government of Sierra Leone had held a national conference in December 2011, which attracted people from different walks of life including traditional leaders. He added that the main outcome was the projection of Sierra Leone attainment of a middle income status by 2035.
He cited the World Bank’s main criterion of 2010, which stated that a country was said to be a middle income status when the per capita income reached US$1.26, the equivalent to 4.8 million dollars.
“To achieve this, income growth must be faster than the growth rate in population,” he said.
Meanwhile, head of the Economic Policy Reform Unit in the ministry of finance and economic development, Alimamy Bangura, said the country’s fall in GDP growth rate was a direct result of the Ebola epidemic in the country.
“The country’s economic slowdown is not only reflected in the GDP but a fall in government revenue, in businesses among others,” said Bangura.
Sierra Leone’s Vision for 2013 to 2035 is to become a middle-income country, according to the government’s Agenda for Prosperity. The document said that “to realise this long term vision of a middle income country in 25 years calls for deliberate and decisive action: to achieve a robust and consistent level of high economic growth, and to maintain significant progress on governance indicators, that will confirm Sierra Leone’s stability as a state, together with sustained improvements in human development indicators for its citizens.”
The platform on which the All Peoples Congress government of Ernest Bai Koroma campaigned in the run up to the 2012 elections “will require sound macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals; and a society with strong institutions and good governance; with women socially, economically and politically empowered; with social support for disadvantaged groups; and with fair legal protection and justice for all.
Accordingly, great emphasis is placed on strengthening governance (with a gender focus), building justice and security, and increasing accountability and transparency.
The AfC was designed for Sierra Leone to overcome challenges to its economic development from “(a) the relatively undiversified nature of the economy, with high unemployment; (b) a recent rate of economic growth which is too low to have the desired impact on poverty; (c) potential external shocks such as inflationary pressures from international food and fuel prices; (d) potential fluctuations in international prices of commodity exports; (e) the possibility of “Dutch Disease”, that is distortion to the economy caused by an appreciating exchange rate due to earnings from commodity exports; (f) high domestic debt; and (g) low domestic revenues.”
© Politico 04/11/14