By Abdul Aziz
As I watch the news channels (BBC, SKY News, ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5, Aljazeera), I cannot help but admire the courage of my fellow Sierra Leoneans even in the face of this killer disease. Sierra Leoneans are a really steadfast people. Sierra Leoneans even see the funny side of Ebola as seen by the numerous jokes on social media.
A Sierra Leonean woman died at Gatwick and part of the airport was on a lockdown. There is a potential case reported in Ireland and the response to that has been highlighted. On Sunday night, a British citizen landed at RAF Norfolk and the National Health Service (NHS) was prepared.
As a Sierra Leonean in the United Kingdom, each time people talk to me, you notice their fascination - some out of genuine concern, some others...well...maybe looking whether Ebola may have transferred to you by telephone contact with relatives back home. I cannot help to think how my local hospital will react if I report to say I have a fever and they check my immigration status and realise I am from Sierra Leone. Hospital lockdown.
Beyond Ebola! The economic challenge:
Now to the purpose of my piece. This health monster has taken the lives of hundreds of my country folks and it is still around. The Government is now trying to address this issue by calling on the International Community for help. How pathetic that each time we have an emergency we have to be running around for help. Look at the Government hospital in Kenema! One cannot help but imagine why our politicians are not really focusing on what is important for our country. Forgive me for repeating this - Sierra Leone had a higher Gross Domestic Product Per Capita than Singapore. Fast forward 50 years and the difference is there for all to see. Why? Decades of economic mismanagement.
Ebola more than just a health issue
Ebola is a health issue and emergency. However, it is the long-term economic effect that we should now be thinking about when the virus would have run out its full course or contained. The International Financial Institutions have had their estimation now in place - Moody's (a credit rating agency) has painted a very bleak picture for the economies of the Ebola-infected countries. Sooner the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will revise their growth forecasts for these countries. For Sierra Leone, I know for sure that our growth prospect will be affected in 2014 and maybe 2015. The economy was on the up recording impressive growth rates. Fiscal performance has been improving. Exchange rate stable, with the Leone even appreciating against major currencies. Domestic debt reduced. Inflation on the decrease. All these made macroeconomic performance extremely good. Now with Ebola, things have changed. Prices of food (which is the dominant item in our inflation basket) are on the up and consequently this will affect inflation in the near term, government revenue will suffer as imports shrink and the revenue from the mining sector will be affected and exports will definitely fall. Our international reserves will also experience a decline. Very soon, if not already happening, businesses will start laying off staff and imagine the economic consequence of a household head unable to provide for his family. All of these point to serious macroeconomic challenges ahead.
One thing that will be critical as we look to recover is Government's intervention. This is not the time to follow prescribed macroeconomic template. Government intervention should be clear and forceful in almost all sectors. Due to the nature of the international market, importers might be constrained to bring in needed goods especially rice - which is our main staple - and fuel. It should not be beyond the realms of Government to actually import certain goods that the private sector will be hard pressed to import. In the immediate aftermath, providing insurance for cargo ships and planes going to Sierra Leone will attract a higher premium and this will ultimately reflect on the price of goods and services provided.
The fact is wages are not going to increase with the level of inflation or at the same rate as the price of goods and services. Even in the event that Government is cautious of intervention, it should provide the enabling environment for local entrepreneurs who want to import to have access to the necessary foreign exchange to do so. After all, we all witness what Western Governments did during the financial crisis - quantitative easing was the watchword. And even now, the Monetary Authorities are still cautions about increasing interest rate which is at an all time low. All this in an attempt to boost their economy.
All of this points to the stark reality that Government treated this outbreak with levity. In September of 1976, the first symptom of an unknown acute viral haemorrhagic fever occurred in the Bumba Zone in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo). By the end of the month when it was realised that this was a killer disease and could spread wildly with disastrous consequences, the Bumba Zone was quarantined. It took the Government of the late Mobutu Sese Seko 14 months to combat the disease. Fast forward 38 years and the fatality of Ebola is public knowledge and yet still our Government failed to quarantine the village in Kailahun even when the signal from Guinea was there for all to see.
We should not wait for the end of Ebola to start planning. Planning for the aftermath of Ebola can start now and both the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development and the Bank of Sierra Leone should be assessing the potential economic loss and developing policy proposals to adequately respond to the immediate aftermath of the Ebola crisis and help make life a little comfortable for the ordinary citizen.
(C) Politico 26/08/14
