By Abdul Tejan-Cole
From 31 October – 12 November 2021, Glasgow, Scotland, will host the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26). The Conference, which brings 190 Governments, international organisations, humanitarian actors, private sector representatives and civil society together, has four main goals to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
First, countries have been asked to propose 2030 emissions reduction targets that align with reaching net-zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach. Some of the proposals under this goal will undoubtedly include reducing the rate of deforestation, phasing out coal, investing in renewables and expediting the switch to electric cars.
Second, advance adaptation proposals such as protecting and restoring ecosystems and building defences, warning systems and resilient infrastructure and agriculture to avoid loss of homes, livelihoods and even lives.
Third, ensure that developed countries make good on their promise made in 2009 to mobilise at least $100 billion in climate finance per year by 2020 to help developing countries cut emissions.
The fourth is to develop ways to work together to address the current climate emergency.
These goals are laudable but fall far short. The issue that will undoubtedly be at the top of the agenda is climate finance. For goals one and two to be realized, goal three needs to come to fruition. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries pledged to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020 to support vulnerable developing countries tackle climate change and its impacts. This commitment was reaffirmed at COP21 in Paris in 2015. There are several issues with this pledge.
First, this promise was never fulfilled. Developed countries failed to provide all the funds. Nature.com notes that the OECD estimates that $78.9 bn of climate finance was mobilised in 2018 and the multilateral development banks estimated that $80 billion was provided in 2019. It further notes that most of this ‘money came from public grants or loans, transferred either from one country to another directly, or through funds from multilateral development banks.’ At COP26, Africa must demand that this pledge is fully met and that all backlogs are paid.
Second, the rules are clear that funding must be new and additional money. Developing countries are in the habit of repackaging old funds and presenting them as new. Despite the clarity of the rules, developing countries cut funding aimed at other development projects and rebrand it as climate finance. This must not be allowed to continue. In Glasgow, Africa must push for better tracking of climate finance. Many developing countries are cutting development aid and support. This is bound to have an adverse impact in fighting climate change in Africa. Repackaging must not cut funding even more.
Third, the sum of US$100 billion a year is grossly inadequate. Mitigating the impact of climate change is costing Africa far more. The African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA) research in 2009 projects that a rise in global temperature of 1.5°C by 2040 will have economic costs equivalent to 1.7 percent of Africa’s GDP. As the mean temperature rises to 2.2°C by 2060, economic costs will increase to the equivalent of 3.4 percent of Africa’s GDP. By the end of the century, with a mean temperature rise of 4.1°C, the economic costs are equivalent to just under 10 percent of the continent’s GDP. In its 2020 Adaptation Gap Report, the United Nations Environment Programme observes that the annual cost of climate adaptation in developing countries could rise from $70 billion today to $280-500 billion by 2050.
Nigeria’s National Environmental Economic and Development Study (Needs) for Climate Change mentions a DFID’s (2009) study, which predicts that climate change could result in a loss in GDP of between 6% and 30% by 2050, worth an estimated US$ 100 to 460 billion dollars. By 2020, if no adaptation is implemented, between 2 and 11% of Nigeria’s GDP could potentially be lost. Although the economic costs are uncertain, adaptation financing for Africa alone will exceed US$ 100 billion. The continent needs more committed and realistic climate funding to support its revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Developed countries must also pledge to boost non-financial efforts in climate change adaptation, such as education and research and development.
Fourth, the bulk of these funds must come to Africa. Weadapt.com notes that ‘climate change is likely to lead to potentially large impacts and economic costs. These will be greater in Africa than other regions because of higher vulnerability and lower adaptive capacity. They could threaten past development gains and constrain future economic progress and development.’
Although it emits the least greenhouses gases, Africa is likely to suffer the most. China, the European Union and the United States, the three top greenhouse gas emitters — contribute over 40% of total global emissions. G20 nations together contribute 75-80%. Africa’s contribution is less than 4%, but it has witnessed a higher rate of warming than the global average of 0.15°C per decade between 1951 and 2020. Africa is not begging for favours. This is an international obligation it is owed.
Fifth, most African countries find it challenging to access climate financing, especially private sector finance, which makes up over 50% of all climate financing. The Green Climate Fund, the ‘world’s largest climate fund, mandated to support developing countries raise and realize their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ambitions towards low-emissions, climate-resilient pathways’ has had to deal with several challenges, including the problem of mobilizing funds, lack of transparency in decision-making, the dominance of donors, lack of country ownership and failure to engage civil society actors adequately. Coordinating international financing for climate adaptation and mitigation remains a significant challenge. It is important to make finance more accessible and faster to Africa and other developing countries.
Most developing countries assume that providing funds for climate finance absolves them of all their responsibilities. This is egotistic and erroneous. Africa must remind developed nations of the need for them to play their part in reducing global emissions. The 2020 dip in global emissions due to the COVID-19 virus was temporary. The trend is now upwards. Developed nations must, in addition to providing finance, embark on mitigation and prevention efforts to keep the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C within reach.
For its part, Africa has realized in Agenda 2063 that addressing climate change and its impact is critical for achieving sustainable development. It must spend its resources to support initiatives such as the African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) and the Africa Adaptation Initiative (AAI). The latter aims to inter alia raise awareness of climate adaptation, facilitate knowledge management, capacity building and strengthening, promote cooperation and partnerships and track progress through monitoring and evaluation. In Scotland, the home of the Brave Heart, Africa must invoke the courage of William Wallace and fight fiercely with one united voice for more effective global action on climate change. Africa and the world will pay a high cost if the continent’s voice is not heard and its needs are neglected.
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